A solid NFP print of 119k was undermined by a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, though the lift in participation leaves it closer to a strong report than a weak one. The US Dollar Index pushed to a six-month high, and Wall Street reversed opening gains to close with bearish engulfing candles. The volatility fed straight into the Australian dollar, which is increasingly following moves in the US dollar and S&P 500 rather than yield spreads or the renminbi. The Australian dollar has held modest gains against the NZD, CHF and JPY this week, but it’s on track to form bearish engulfing or outside weeks against the USD, CAD, GBP and EUR. The ASX 200 is also heading towards a fourth straight weekly decline and its weakest week in eight months.
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A solid NFP print of 119k was undermined by a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, though the lift in participation leaves it closer to a strong report than a weak one. The US Dollar Index pushed to a six-month high, and Wall Street reversed opening gains to close with bearish engulfing candles. The volatility fed straight into the Australian dollar, which is increasingly following moves in the US dollar and S&P 500 rather than yield spreads or the renminbi. The Australian dollar has held modest gains against the NZD, CHF and JPY this week, but it’s on track to form bearish engulfing or outside weeks against the USD, CAD, GBP and EUR. The ASX 200 is also heading towards a fourth straight weekly decline and its weakest week in eight months.
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout, AUD/JPY Mean Reversion
A solid NFP print of 119k was undermined by a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, though the lift in participation leaves it closer to a strong report than a weak one. The US Dollar Index pushed to a six-month high, and Wall Street reversed opening gains to close with bearish engulfing candles. The volatility fed straight into the Australian dollar, which is increasingly following moves in the US dollar and S&P 500 rather than yield spreads or the renminbi.
The Australian dollar has held modest gains against the NZD, CHF and JPY this week, but it’s on track to form bearish engulfing or outside weeks against the USD, CAD, GBP and EUR. The ASX 200 is also heading towards a fourth straight weekly decline and its weakest week in eight months.A solid NFP print of 119k was undermined by a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, though the lift in participation leaves it closer to a strong report than a weak one. The US Dollar Index pushed to a six-month high, and Wall Street reversed opening gains to close with bearish engulfing candles. The volatility fed straight into the Australian dollar, which is increasingly following moves in the US dollar and S&P 500 rather than yield spreads or the renminbi.
The Australian dollar has held modest gains against the NZD, CHF and JPY this week, but it’s on track to form bearish engulfing or outside weeks against the USD, CAD, GBP and EUR. The ASX 200 is also heading towards a fourth straight weekly decline and its weakest week in eight months.

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Breakout, AUD/JPY Mean Reversion
A solid NFP print of 119k was undermined by a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, though the lift in participation leaves it closer to a strong report than a weak one. The US Dollar Index pushed to a six-month high, and Wall Street reversed opening gains to close with bearish engulfing candles. The volatility fed straight into the Australian dollar, which is increasingly following moves in the US dollar and S&P 500 rather than yield spreads or the renminbi.
The Australian dollar has held modest gains against the NZD, CHF and JPY this week, but it’s on track to form bearish engulfing or outside weeks against the USD, CAD, GBP and EUR. The ASX 200 is also heading towards a fourth straight weekly decline and its weakest week in eight months.A solid NFP print of 119k was undermined by a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, though the lift in participation leaves it closer to a strong report than a weak one. The US Dollar Index pushed to a six-month high, and Wall Street reversed opening gains to close with bearish engulfing candles. The volatility fed straight into the Australian dollar, which is increasingly following moves in the US dollar and S&P 500 rather than yield spreads or the renminbi.
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November 20, 2025 10:46 PMBritish Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Bears Halted Post-NFP – Decision Time at Pivotal Support
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